MR-W vs ST-W 1st T20 2026: Prediction & Pitch Report
Quick answer
We lean towards Melbourne Renegades Women. They have won the last three meetings with Sydney Thunder Women and topped the WBBL 11 group stage with seven wins from 10 matches. The Thunder are capable of an upset, but the recent record favours the hosts.
MR-W vs ST-W 1st T20 preview
Womens Big Bash League 2026 begins on Thursday, 29 October 2026, when Melbourne Renegades Women host Sydney Thunder Women in Match 1. The first ball is scheduled for 10:10 AM IST at Junction Oval, Melbourne.
The tournament runs from 29 October to 5 December 2026 and has 43 matches. The Renegades have won their last three meetings with the Thunder, so the Thunder start with a record to improve.
Series context
According to cricket.com.au, the WBBL regular season has been trimmed from 14 to 10 games per team. The T20 Spring Challenge has been introduced to keep domestic players playing.
Cricket.com.au also says the Renegades are likely to be playing their final WBBL season under the ‘Renegades’ name.
Form guide
The latest recorded matches come from WBBL 2025. The Renegades won two of their last five: a six-wicket win over Sydney Sixers Women on 4 December 2025 and an eight-wicket win over the Thunder on 22 November 2025. They lost to Perth Scorchers Women twice, by 4 wickets and by 30 runs, and to Melbourne Stars Women by 45 runs.
Wisden reports that the Renegades finished the WBBL 11 group stage with seven wins from 10 matches, topping the table.
The Thunder won two of their last five recorded matches, lost two and had one no result. They beat Melbourne Stars Women by 9 wickets (DLS Method) on 6 December 2025 and Brisbane Heat Women by 23 runs on 3 December 2025. They lost to Sydney Sixers Women by 6 wickets and to the Renegades on 22 November 2025, while their match against Adelaide Strikers Women ended with no result.
According to cricket.com.au, the Thunder missed the top four in WBBL|11 for the first time since 2022, after finals appearances in WBBL|09 and WBBL|10. The WBBL|11 standings on the same site show them with 4 wins and 5 losses from 10 matches and 9 points.
Head-to-head
The Renegades have won five of the last seven meetings listed, and the Thunder two. Both Thunder wins came in 2023: by 8 wickets on 26 October and by 37 runs on 1 November, when they made 190/5.
The Renegades have won every meeting since. They won by 9 wickets in November 2024. In WBBL 2025 they won by four wickets on 11 November, chasing 148/7 with 151/6 in 18.1 overs, a result ESPNcricinfo also records. They then won by eight wickets on 22 November, when the Thunder were bowled out for 64 in 17 overs.
Squad news
Cricket.com.au reports that Hayley Matthews is in the Renegades’ list for WBBL|12 after missing WBBL|11 following shoulder surgery, and calls it a huge boost. Chloe Tryon has signed a one-year deal, her fourth WBBL club, and is the third and final overseas player the club has signed.
The Thunder have signed South African allrounder Nadine de Klerk on a one-year deal with full availability, including finals.
Our prediction
The Renegades hold the recent edge. They have won the last three meetings against the Thunder and topped the WBBL 11 group stage, while the Thunder missed the top four. The Thunder will hope de Klerk’s arrival changes that.
Junction Oval pitch report
Venue record: In 31 completed T20 matches at Junction Oval in our records up to 7 Dec 2025, the average first-innings score is 148 and sides batting first have won more often (16–15).
Recent form
Head to head (T20)
MR-W 68/2 (11.1 ov) · ST-W 64 (17 ov)
Melbourne Renegades Women won by 8 wkts Scorecard Drummoyne Oval, Sydney Result Tue, 11 Nov · 9:40 AM IST Melbourne Renegades Women vs Sydney Thunder Women · 5th T20 · WBBL 2025
MR-W 151/6 (18.1 ov) · ST-W 148/7 (20 ov)
Melbourne Renegades Women won by 4 wkts Scorecard Junction Oval, Melbourne Result Sat, 23 Nov · 4:30 AM IST Melbourne Renegades Women vs Sydney Thunder Women · 37th T20 · WBBL 2024
MR-W 137/1 (14.2 ov) · ST-W 133 (19.1 ov)
Melbourne Renegades Women won by 9 wkts Scorecard Junction Oval, Melbourne Result Wed, 1 Nov · 9:30 AM IST Melbourne Renegades Women vs Sydney Thunder Women · 19th T20 · WBBL 2023
MR-W 153/7 (20 ov) · ST-W 190/5 (20 ov)
Sydney Thunder Women won by 37 runs Scorecard Junction Oval, Melbourne Result Thu, 26 Oct · 9:30 AM IST Melbourne Renegades Women vs Sydney Thunder Women · 11th T20 · WBBL 2023
MR-W 147/5 (20 ov) · ST-W 151/2 (17.3 ov)
Sydney Thunder Women won by 8 wkts Scorecard Sydney Cricket Ground, Sydney Result Tue, 15 Nov · 1:40 PM IST Melbourne Renegades Women vs Sydney Thunder Women · 47th T20 · WBBL 2022
MR-W 98/2 (14.2 ov) · ST-W 95 (20 ov)
Melbourne Renegades Women won by 8 wkts Scorecard Manuka Oval, Canberra Result
Full Melbourne Renegades Women vs Sydney Thunder Women head to head, records and results →
FAQ
When does Melbourne Renegades Women vs Sydney Thunder Women 1st T20 start in India?
Thursday, 29 October 2026, at 10:10 AM IST.
Where is Melbourne Renegades Women vs Sydney Thunder Women 1st T20 being played?
Junction Oval, Melbourne.
Which series is this match part of?
Womens Big Bash League 2026, 29 Oct – 5 Dec 2026.
How does the pitch at Junction Oval usually play?
In 31 completed T20 matches at Junction Oval in our records up to 7 Dec 2025, the average first-innings score is 148 and sides batting first have won more often (16–15).
Who will win Melbourne Renegades Women vs Sydney Thunder Women?
We lean towards Melbourne Renegades Women. They have won the last three meetings with Sydney Thunder Women and topped the WBBL 11 group stage with seven wins from 10 matches. The Thunder are capable of an upset, but the recent record favours the hosts.